“We won’t repeat the old mistakes. We’ll make new ones.”
Henry Kissinger, 1969.

The purpose of this blog

My hypothesis is that the Obama administration will fail to fix the financial crisis that affects the country (and therefore the world), or to set the national economy on a firm recovering trend by January 2013.

The purpose of this blog is to collect news clippings and personal thoughts along these coming four year to help understand the validation or rejection of my hypothesis by events. A sort of breadcrumb trail through the thick forest of events.

The news that I intend to collect will be shown to the right: in The News Trail section you will see the latest 25 items; you may access the rest of them by following the link at the bottom of the box (the link will take to you to my Delicious bookmarks).

If you will, this is a small personal experiment in political forecasting, and I am trying to make it scientifically rigorous (as much as politics allows). I have presented a hypothesis and the data collection method.

Now is time to present the test that will validate or reject my hypothesis.

Will he succeed?

Because I am a physicist and not an economist the test that I propose is that the year-end issues of 2012 of The Economist and The Financial Times will both agree that the US economy is at least on its way to recovery out of the financial crisis.

I choose on purpose two foreign publications to avoid any possible bias due to the fact that 2012 will be a presidential election year. True, in a globalized world everybody has an axe to grind, but thus at least I can have the hope—if not the certainty—that the bias is minimized.

Disclaimer

I have no vested interest in the failing of the Obama administration, least of all a "told you so" interest.

Truly I want Mr Obama to suceed and wish him godspeed, although I am skeptical. The purpose of this blog is to keep a personal record of whether my skepticism was well founded or not.

Pedro N. Safier
Alexandria, Virginia, 19 february 2009

21 February 2009

Out of the Gate

Barely a month after inauguration, the news do not look good to me.

First, was the blunder with the cabinet nominations. If one includes the withdrawal of Bill Richardson, the incoming administration failed three times to show due diligence in the vetting process that is a fundamental part of nominating somebody for a cabinet post.

Second, came a little publicized news item: the administration decided that the Census Bureau is not going to be anymore part of the Commerce Department, but is going to depend from the White House, although now they are backpedaling on it. The census counts noses and it is important for determining the boundaries of political districts.

Last, but not least, came the announcement of the stimulus. To me it sounded like "here you are $787 bn, and the details will come later." The markets did not like it, and it is no wonder . Look at The Financial Times graphics, and you will see that the details are very fuzzy.

Now there is a homeowner rescue plan that it is likely to flop, and a trillion dolars to revive the moribund mortgage market, as an attempt to jumpstart the rest of the credit system.

My conclusion is that, so far, this administration has shown the following problems:

  1. The crisis is due to a lack of confidence, not money, and this administration does not know how to build confidence. Quite the contrary, they are making everybody more nervous by throwing good money after bad.
  2. There is a tendency to concentrate power in the White House that is worrisome. Signs of this are the census fiasco and the decision to tackle the problem of the auto industry without nominating a czar.
  3. All new administrations show inexperience, but in some areas you can always bring seasoned people to remedy this. The cabinet nomination process is a tried and true one, and the last Democratic administration was in power only nine years ago. There should be enough Democrats around that remember how to do it right. It seems that they are not in Mr Obama's rolodex.
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